U.S. Midterm Shake-Up Could Reshape Global Oil and Gas Markets

Résumé détaillé

Democrats' victory in the 2026 US midterm elections could constrain President Trump's domestic energy agenda while increasing uncertainty over sanctions, trade policy and geopolitical conflicts affecting global energy markets.

Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence provider offering global databases, strategic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,…

The 2026 US midterm elections have delivered a significant political setback to President Donald Trump, but their implications for US policy and global energy markets are far from straightforward. Democratic control of Congress will constrain the administration's domestic legislative agenda and yet leave considerable presidential discretion over foreign policy. The outcome closely matches Scenario C of our 5 October outlook: legislative gridlock at home, greater congressional influence over spending and appointments, and potentially increased reliance on executive powers to define the administration’s policies abroad.

The US remains deeply involved in the Middle East conflict, energy prices remain elevated, and Washington increasingly uses sanctions, trade restrictions and energy resources as instruments of negotiation. A Democratic Congress could raise the political cost of further escalation against Iran, complicate potential concessions to Russia and increase scrutiny of trade policy. Yet, congressional constraints could also encourage greater reliance on executive action, potentially increasing rather than reducing geopolitical uncertainty.

Hence, there are important limits to what the election can change. The White House retains considerable authority over the instruments that impact global energy markets most directly: sanctions implementation, diplomacy and certain trade measures. Congress retains authority over trade legislation, appropriations and war powers, while the Supreme Court has already established legal limits on the use of emergency economic powers to levy tariffs. The election result would therefore put more political and institutional constraints on the administration's actions, rather than fundamentally altering the powers available to it.

Domestically…

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