Will Trump attack Iran again?

Résumé détaillé

The midterm elections were a devastating rebuke of Donald Trump's war on Iran — but they have also freed the president from considerations of voter behaviour. The post Will Trump…

The US midterms offered a damning verdict on President Donald Trump’s war on Iran. Republicans losing the House and Senate to the Democrats is widely seen as the result of American voters’ frustration with a war that was supposed to be quick and painless. Instead, this prolonged conflict, which started in February, has morphed into a deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the global shipment of oil and gas.

Vice President JD Vance openly admitted that he believed the war led to the Republican electoral setback, a point grudgingly acknowledged by Trump. But this does not mean the president is rethinking his decision to go to war. He has consistently justified his decision by saying the US will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear bomb, a refrain he repeated last week while also arguing that US action is necessary for the survival of the state of Israel.

There is a clear disconnect between American public opinion and Trump’s decision-making on Iran. The Democrat-dominated Congress will convene on January 3 and is expected to challenge Trump’s decisions every step of the way. Political pundits are thus referring to the president as a lame duck for the intervening weeks. Trump, however, has not shown any intention of tempering his stance. His style has always been to come out swinging; it would not be a surprise for him to push for a “decisive victory” in Iran before Congress sits.

Trump has staked his credibility on winning the Iran war, and he needs a clear win for his ego. On October 31, he suggested the US could achieve that win by targeting Pickaxe Mountain’s tunnel complex in central Iran; a senior Israeli diplomatic source stated in July that they believe enrichment has resumed. “We can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump said. Tehran denies any nuclear work is happening at the location, yet nobody outside Iran can test that denial as the International Atomic Energy Agency has had no access to key facilities since June 2025.

Meanwhile, on the eve of the midterms…

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