IMF supports Vietnam's growth outlook after review

Resumen detallado

The IMF has concluded its Vietnam consultation, noting the country remains among the world's fastest-growing economies.

The team, led by Martin Sommer, held discussions in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City from November 3 to 13 and issued a statement at the end of the mission. Vietnam's real GDP grew 9 per cent on-year in the first three quarters of 2026. Inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in October, though the January–October average remained slightly above the authorities' 4.5 per cent annual target.

The current account balance moved into deficit amid higher oil and semiconductor prices, although the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have remained broadly stable, supported by robust foreign direct investment inflows and higher interest rates. Bank funding pressures amid rapid credit growth have put upward pressure on interest rates, prompting the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to provide liquidity support through multiple instruments.

Growth is projected at 9.2 per cent in 2026 and 8.9 per cent in 2027, with activity exceeding its estimated potential level. Inflation is forecast to remain above the authorities’ target in both years. Risks are tilted towards weaker growth and higher inflation, including from prolonged tensions in the Middle East, a potential reassessment of AI prospects, trade policy uncertainty, public investment outpacing absorptive capacity, rapid credit growth, and extreme weather events.

A broadly neutral fiscal stance in 2027 would support macro-financial stability. A well-calibrated rollout of the planned public investment and the prioritisation of high-return projects would reduce overheating risks, while ensuring investment efficiency. Fiscal policy will need to be nimble in the period ahead and spending should be scaled back if overheating risks materialise.

With global oil prices easing, the broad energy price support should be phased out as planned, with targeted transfers protecting vulnerable groups. Stronger public investment management, greater transparency, and close oversight of risks from public-private partnerships and state-owned enterprises would…

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