Trump’s diesel deal with Putin is a shambles. Here’s why it was always destined to fail

Résumé détaillé

The US president touted his diesel deal with Russia as a way to bring down energy prices ahead of the midterms. But a month on, US voters are yet to see any benefits and Europe and Kyiv are enraged, writes James C. Reynolds

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It was late one Friday afternoon in October when Donald Trump unveiled what he thought would be a bold new plan to rescue America from the fuel crisis.

“I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace,” he wrote on Truth Social.

The controversial diesel accord with Russia blindsided Washington’s allies in Europe and threatened to undermine years of layered sanctions on the economy fuelling Moscow’s war machine.

But for president Trump, the priority had shifted to taming energy prices at home ahead of the November midterm elections. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine were contributing to shortages, which pushed prices up - but so too was his war on Iran.

A gallon of diesel that cost $6.19 on October 5 still cost $6.29 a month later, on November 2; the midterms were a rout for Trump’s humiliated Republican party; and an emboldened Russia is still vying to force through its maximum demands in Ukraine peace talks, according to the EU.

A month on, it appears even the tankers that were supposed to bring the Russian diesel to the US are yet to arrive, with three since diverted to other destinations, according to shipping data.

Analysts say it would still take much more diesel to have any meaningful impact on prices. And Trump still has to navigate the political sensitivity, as prospective buyers in the US still appear hesitant to purchase Russian fuel.

The original deal announced in October was supposed to waive parts of a new sanctions law on Moscow. In return, Russia would immediately export 300,000 tons (around 2.25m barrels) to the US and global markets, followed by 500,000 tons (3.75m barrels) in November, and one million tons (7.5m barrels) “immediately…

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