Ukraine is running out of options, and Russia knows it

Resumen detallado

The Abu Dhabi talks reveal Moscow’s growing leverage over Ukraine and a shifting Western approach to peace.

The trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States that took place in Abu Dhabi this week may not lead to a rapid breakthrough, but they clearly outline the trajectory of a conflict that might, after all, be nearing its end.

If anything illustrates the political and emotional rift the two sides are yet to bridge, it is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s remarks in Copenhagen this week, in which he lamented that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was still alive. Ukraine’s harsh reality, however, is pushing him towards an unsavoury compromise with his arch-enemy.

Kyiv was compelled to enter the talks at the most disadvantageous moment, when it has few means to counter devastating Russian air strikes that damage its key industries and cripple essential infrastructure in major cities. One of Ukraine’s top negotiators, David Arakhamia, who leads Zelenskyy’s parliamentary faction, described the negotiations as among the most difficult he had participated in since 2022. He said the Russians had arrived with very strict instructions and that it had been difficult to soften the tone of the discussions. His assessment confirms that Russia sees itself as well equipped to negotiate from a position of force.

Moscow, meanwhile, expressed optimism about the outcome. Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky, said the talks had brought the two countries closer to peace. Even Arakhamia said there was momentum towards reaching a solution before the end of the year. That optimism, it needs to be noted, comes without any signs of Russia changing its position on the contours of the agreement. Just as it has for years, the Kremlin insists on a genuinely neutral, demilitarised Ukraine which honours the rights of its Russian-speaking population.

If all this comes as a nasty surprise to many in the West, that’s because for most of this year, Western politicians and the mainstream media kept insisting that the tide of war was turning and that Ukraine was getting the upper hand.

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