IEA downgrades outlook on global oil demand growth, projects decline by 2.7 mbd in 2026

Detailed summary

According to the International Energy Agency, oil consumption growth will move into positive territory starting around March 2027

MOSCOW, November 13. /TASS/. Global oil demand will decline by 2.7 mln barrels per day (mbd) in 2026, International Energy Agency (IEA) reported.

Thus, the agency has lowered its demand forecast by nearly 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to its October expectations when a decline of 2.6 mbd was expected.

At the same time, the IEA expects the fall of global oil demand to slow to 2.7 mbd in the fourth quarter of this year from 4.4 mbd in the second and third quarters, reflecting a partial normalization in the supply of petroleum products, according to the report.

Oil consumption growth will move into positive territory starting around March 2027, which will drive an increase in demand of 2 mbd in 2027, the agency said.

According to the IEA’s forecast, global oil demand will reach 102.285 mbd in 2026, compared to 104.969 mbd in 2025. For 2027, the agency expects oil demand at 104.297 mbd.

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