The Guardian view on Cop31: the green transition must not be derailed | Editorial

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Renewed commitments to electrification and climate science are vital outcomes from the latest round of UN talksThe Cop31 climate talks have acquired something their delegates…

Renewed commitments to electrification and climate science are vital outcomes from the latest round of UN talks

The Cop31 climate talks have acquired something their delegates scarcely expected: a little political breathing space. The comeback by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of Brazil’s presidential race was important for many reasons. Victory for his opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, would have marked a dangerous retreat from democracy. But Mr Bolsonaro’s commitment to environmental deregulation would also have spelled disaster for the Amazon, making Lula’s re-election a big win for the climate. Similarly, success by Democrats in the US midterms means that Donald Trump’s destructive grip has been loosened.

While the diplomatic picture is less bleak than it might have been, the threat level remains high and rising. António Guterres used his last Cop as UN secretary general to issue a pithy warning that “it’s make or bake time”. With the latest analysis pointing to heating of 2.7C by the end of the century – far beyond the 1.5C target in the Paris agreement – governments face another crunch moment: by pivoting away from fossil fuels, they can still avert the most dangerous impacts. Yet the UK’s Andy Burnham was the only G7 leader to make the trip to Turkey; the French and German leaders chose to attend an EU summit in Dublin instead.

Warnings of mounting risks, unprecedented heat and disasters such as August’s glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border can engender a sense of paralysis or unreality. The leaders of both host countries prompted anger last week: the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, publicly extolled his country’s oil reserves, while Australia’s Anthony Albanese failed to mention fossil fuels in his speech. But for all its flaws, the UN climate process remains crucial. There is no other mechanism to broker a global green transition.

Mr Burnham’s appointment of a climate security adviser, Madeleine Alessandri, should focus minds in the UK.

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