NAB shares: I weighed up the bull and bear case. Here's my call

Detailed summary

Can the bank overcome its latest headwinds? The post NAB shares: I weighed up the bull and bear case. Here's my call appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Markets are divided about National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares.

The bulls are cautiously optimistic that the ASX bank's business scale and defensive qualities could support ongoing growth.

Meanwhile the bears are concerned about pressure from rising operating costs and softer credit conditions.

NAB's share price movement this year paints a great picture of the bank's fluctuating sentiment.

The shares have been the most volatile among the big four banks this year. Throughout 2026 so far the shares have swung between a high of $49.10 and a low of $35.68. That represents a peak to trough swing of around 27%. At the time of writing NAB shares are $38.86 each.

Tradingview data shows that analysts are split too. Based on 16 analysts over the past three months, seven have a hold rating on NAB shares. Another five rate the shares as a sell/strong sell, and four rate the shares as a strong buy.

Unsurprisingly, the range between the minimum, average, and maximum target prices is also huge.

Bearish analysts forecast NAB shares to fall around 31% at the time of writing, to a minimum $27 target price.

Then there are those in the middle. The average $36.87 target price implies a downside of around 5% at the time of writing.

Opening of the article, excerpted from The Motley Fool Australia. To read the rest, open the article on the publisher's site.