Why Anthropic’s IPO is nothing like Google’s

Detailed summary

“If [public market investors] are not seeing the narrative at this point, they are failing a basic IQ test,” one early Anthropic backer told the Financial Times. “The next Google…

Anthropic still plans to go public next week, despite recent volatility in AI stocks and a sharp reassessment of its prospective valuation. After investors contemplated as much as $2 trillion (€1.8 trillion) only weeks ago, figures ranging from $1.1 trillion to $1.5 trillion have since been floated.

“If [public market investors] are not seeing the narrative at this point, they are failing a basic IQ test,” one early Anthropic backer told the Financial Times. “The next Google is dancing naked in front of you. If you can’t see the value of it, you don’t deserve to make money.”

Anthropic may be dancing naked in front of investors, to stick with this unfortunate metaphor, but it may also be asking them to pay some $1.5 trillion for the privilege of watching.

As for Google, it was valued at $23 billion when it floated in 2004 – less than Yahoo, then valued at $39 billion. In contrast, Anthropic’s trillion-dollar status will immediately place it among the S&P 500’s most valuable companies.

Put another way, $1.5 trillion would buy 65 Googles at their 2004 valuation. Even $1 trillion would buy 43. The two opportunities are hardly comparable.

Anthropic may well be worth $1.5 trillion or more. It may outperform in coming years. However, there is only so much excitement in the prospect of buying the “next Google” when it is already valued as though it has achieved Google’s success.

Opening of the article, excerpted from The Irish Times. To read the rest, open the article on the publisher's site.