Climate change is coming for the cactus. Yes, the cactus.

Detailed summary

New research shows that a quarter of nearly 1,000 cactus species could lose at least 80 percent of their habitat by 2100, due to relentless droughts.

The humble cactus is an icon of resiliency. Stuck in a desert with little rain and abundant searing sun, these plants don’t just survive — they thrive and in turn provide habitat for owls and other birds, and flowers for bats and other pollinators.

Yet cacti are in serious trouble, due to habitat loss and the poaching of species for private collections. Now we can add worsening droughts to those woes, according to a new study in the journal Nature. Researchers modeled not just a future of relentlessly rising temperatures, but the attendant dry spells, finding that the majority of nearly 1,000 cactus species will lose habitat as the climate radically changes. More than a quarter of those species could lose at least 80 percent of that habitat by 2100.

“The public perception of cacti tends to be of these organisms that are extremely drought-adapted and are just resilient, can handle anything that you can throw at them,” said Michiel Pillet, a conservation ecologist at the University of South Florida and lead author of the paper. “In reality, cacti are absolutely amazing — and they’re my favorite plant group, clearly — but they’re not that different from other plants.”

That means cacti need water. In the deserts of the southwestern United States, for example, they rely on seasonal monsoon rains which tend to make July or August the wettest month in a given year. Because this is still a desert, cacti have evolved a range of adaptations to survive, like a waxy skin that helps them retain that bounty of rainwater. “Just like other plants, they evolved under conditions that they’re used to,” Pillet said. “When you take them outside of those conditions, they might not be able to handle that.”

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Think of these cacti like sick hospital patients. Someone might be admitted for heat-related illness, as their body struggles to cool itself.

Instead of simply…

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