IMF sees Philippine recovery by early 2027 if oil shocks are short-lived

Résumé détaillé

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Philippines could regain its economic momentum later this year or by early 2027 if the energy shocks prove temporary and the local investment climate…

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Philippines could regain its economic momentum later this year or by early 2027 if the energy shocks prove temporary and the local investment climate improves, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.

In an exclusive interview with BusinessWorld, Krishna Srinivasan, director for Asia-Pacific Department at the IMF, said easing external pressures from the Middle East conflict and recovering domestic demand, particularly investments, could bring the country’s growth to 5.8% in 2027.

“So, the assumption there would be that if the shock is temporary, then things normalize and the Philippines goes back to a pickup in domestic demand and external demand,” he said on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s Spring Meetings last week.

“If the shock dissipates, you could see the momentum starting later this year and beginning of next year,” he added.

The multilateral lender’s Philippine growth outlook for 2027 is significantly faster than its downgraded 4.1% estimate for this year and the 4.4% output recorded last year.

Still, Mr. Srinivasan noted that the Philippines may be worse off if the conflict intensifies, or in which energy price increases are higher and more persistent as well as if energy infrastructure takes more hits.

“I think the risk, all the numbers I’m quoting are from the reference scenario, which assumes that the shock is temporary. It’s a transient shock. It doesn’t last for that long. It dissipates very quickly,” he said.

“Now, if that doesn’t happen, right, then we have two scenarios in the WEO (World Economic Outlook) where we talked about the fact that growth could come down by one to two percentage points in Asia. And that, if you do the numbers of (the) Philippines, I think it would be much more significant,” he added.

For this year, lingering governance woes from the flood control corruption scandal in late 2025 and potential supply shocks from impending natural disasters are also clouding the growth outlook for the Philippines.

Début de l'article, extrait de BusinessWorld. Pour lire la suite, ouvrez l'article chez le média.