El Niño: New Forecast Updates Timeline for Winter Weather Event
Detailed summary
El Niño has continued to strengthen, with a “strong-to-very strong” event likely through January-March 2027, according to a new federal forecast. Meteorologists at the National…
El Niño has continued to strengthen, with a “strong-to-very strong” event likely through January-March 2027, according to a new federal forecast.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said there was a greater than 79 percent chance for such an event, and that the phenomenon is expected to continue strengthening before a weakening trend begins early next year.
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide. In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
The climate pattern has also helped shape the hurricane season, with meteorologists attributing amplified activity in the Pacific and suppressed activity in the Atlantic to El Niño
Forecasters say this episode has already smashed benchmarks and could help make 2027 the hottest on record.
The CPC said on Thursday there was roughly a 60 percent chance for a “historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950” for the October-December and November-January periods.
“Even with a very strong El Niño, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are higher, though not guaranteed,” the agency noted.
It also stated, when compared to last month, "El Niño strengthened as sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C, extending farther westward across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean."
In its October update, the CPC said El Niño had strengthened and that there was a greater than 83 percent chance of a "strong-to-very strong" event through January-March 2027.
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