UAE growth set to stay resilient despite regional tensions as global economy slows

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Gulf economies have generally been supported by strong government spending and continued expansion in non-oil sectors despite a more challenging external environment, Moody's says…

The UAE is expected to remain one of the Gulf’s more resilient economies as government spending, diversification efforts and investment flows continue to support non-oil growth, even as geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs weigh on the broader regional outlook, according to Moody’s Global Macro Outlook: Stable global growth will mask considerable variation in trends across economies.

While Moody’s did not provide a standalone forecast for the UAE, the ratings agency said Gulf economies have generally been supported by strong government spending and continued expansion in non-oil sectors despite a more challenging external environment. The report forecasts a gradual recovery in Gulf oil production and exports through 2027, which could help strengthen economic activity across the region.

The agency expects global growth to ease to 2.6 per cent before stabilising through 2027 and 2028, but noted that investment in digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, energy security and supply chains will continue to underpin economic activity. Those trends align closely with the UAE’s strategy of attracting capital into technology, logistics, renewable energy and advanced industries.

Across the GCC, Moody’s said governments have so far managed to cushion their economies from the impact of conflict-related disruptions through fiscal support and economic diversification programmes. Although higher oil prices and regional tensions have increased uncertainty, the agency said Gulf production and exports are expected to recover gradually as additional pipeline capacity, alternative shipping routes and bilateral arrangements improve export resilience.

Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, is forecast to rebound strongly, with growth accelerating from a projected contraction of 2.8 per cent in 2026 to 5.1 per cent in 2027 and 6 per cent in 2028 as oil production and exports recover.

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