Trump cannot freeze the Iran war on his own terms

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Trump cannot freeze the Iran war on his own terms Submitted by Shahir Shahidsaless on Tue, 11/10/2026 - 16:03 The US president can choose not to start another all-out conflict -…

On Monday, US President Donald Trump appeared to rule out another major offensive against Iran, at least for now. After speaking with Qatar’s prime minister, he said Washington was maintaining the “status quo”.

In a Truth Social post, he said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait favoured continuing the naval blockade and “Operation Iron Gate”. Further escalation was “quite unlikely”, he suggested, although US forces remained “locked and loaded”.

Days earlier, Trump had been considering new strikes. Now he appears to favour keeping Iran under economic and military pressure without risking another major war.

The flaw is obvious: Washington can choose to maintain a blockade. It cannot decide how long Tehran will tolerate it.

Also on Monday, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, called Washington a “desperate gambler”, denounced reports of “imaginary talks”, and demanded that the US “surrender” to Iran’s conditions.

For the Islamic Republic, this confrontation is existential. An indefinite blockade would inflict mounting economic damage, without guaranteeing relief or protection from another attack. Meanwhile, Gulf producers continue selling whatever oil they can export. Iran is left bleeding while others continue business.

Falling prices compound Tehran’s predicament: Brent crude plunged six percent on Monday, diminishing the global economic pressure that had helped Iran deter Washington. Tehran has little incentive to let its adversaries enjoy lower energy prices while its own economy remains strangled.

Iran could therefore intensify disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, target shipping, or conduct limited but damaging attacks against regional energy facilities. Such escalation follows a pattern already visible: Reuters reported continuing tanker attacks and limited US strikes, even as Trump advocated the status quo.

The logic of asymmetric warfare is different. Iran need not defeat the US military.

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