Wall Street's Panic Gauge Just Broke a 13-Year Record. Goldman Says History Favors a Rebound

Résumé détaillé

Goldman Sachs' Panic Index posted a record two-day swing to 9.57. See what 15 past panic signals mean for the S&P 500.

Goldman Sachs' Vol Panic Index posted its biggest two-day swing on record last week, beating an April 2013 high. The gauge collapsed during the midterm relief rally, then jumped to 9.57 out of 10 a day later.

That reading pushed US stocks into Goldman's panic zone, a level crossed only 15 times before. Historically, such extremes preceded S&P 500 gains, but the bank's traders warn that forced selling may not be over.

Goldman's trading desk runs the gauge, which scores stress in US equities from zero to 10. It draws on options-market signals such as implied volatility and the cost of downside protection.

Barchart data puts the combined two-day move at roughly 8.5 points. The previous record, 7.87 points, dated back to April 16, 2013.

The swing began on Wednesday, November 4. Stocks rallied after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and the Dow's post-election jump reached 3%.

Clients used that rally to sell their hedges. As a result, the Panic Index logged its fourth-largest daily drop on record.

That protection disappeared just before investors needed it. On Thursday, an AI chip stock selloff dragged the S&P 500 down 4.36%, its worst session since April 2025.

The index climbed about five points that day, its third-largest daily gain. Goldman trader Lee Coppersmith captured the reversal.

Demand for protection set a record of its own. Cboe handled 11.23 million put contracts on Thursday, topping the 10.22 million traded on April 4, 2025.

Début de l'article, extrait de Yahoo Finance. Pour lire la suite, ouvrez l'article chez le média.