Fatih Birol: The Energy World Will Never Be the Same As Before the Iran War

详细摘要

For more than a decade, Fatih Birol has been one of the world’s most influential voices in energy markets. As the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), he advises…

For more than a decade, Fatih Birol has been one of the world’s most influential voices in energy markets. As the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), he advises presidents and energy ministers; CEOs follow his view of the market with careful attention.

When we caught up at the United Nations climate change conference, known as COP31, currently underway in Antalya, Turkey, he offered a blunt analysis: the war in Iran has unleashed a structural shift. "I don't see any credible pathway in which the world of energy is going back where it was before the Iran War," he said on Nov. 13.

A quick analysis might boil this shift down to simple terms. In general, the focus on energy security will mean more renewable energy because it can be produced locally. It will mean efficiency measures so that countries use less fuel and are less vulnerable to shocks. Indeed, an energy crisis policy tracker from the IEA cites dozens of policies countries have laid out this year to do just that—from a push for biodiesel in Indonesia to incentives for consumers to install solar and storage in Bangladesh.

But Birol says the coming structural changes in energy will have even wider implications, shaping economic and geopolitical outcomes. He cites economic diversification plans from oil-exporting countries, new trade partnerships, and investments in new technologies like next-generation batteries and nuclear power. All of which comes with an eye toward safeguarding energy supply from supply disruptions. "Instead of importing energy, they are deciding to build energy,” he told me.

A key theme in Antalya—and on Birol’s mind—is electrification. Right now less than a quarter of final energy consumption comes from electricity. The rest comes primarily from fuel consumption, think of petrol in vehicles, heating oil in homes, or gas in stoves. Relying on electricity, which tends to be produced relatively close to where it’s used, addresses energy security concerns.

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