Tony Abbott and preference deals: Are the Victorian Liberals trying to drive away moderates?

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Jess Wilson’s One Nation preference deal won’t cost her a majority, but it could hand the teals a gift in Melbourne’s leafy east. The post Tony Abbott and preference deals: Are…

The Liberals may one day rue their decision to preference One Nation above Labor in the Victorian state election. The regret could kick in sooner than they think, too, if it helps drive the leafy east into the arms of teal independents.

In a long-expected move, Liberal leader Jess Wilson confirmed on Tuesday that the Victorian Liberals will recommend voters preference One Nation over Labor at the November 28 election. This may well help One Nation come out on top in Labor-One Nation contests across the state. As election analyst William Bowe wrote in Crikey on Monday, Liberal voters are known to dutifully follow how-to-vote cards.

One Nation may now gain a serious foothold in Victoria, an outcome the Liberals could regret should the right-wing minor party one day become a right-wing major party, displacing the very coalition that opened the doors to it. But some suspect the Liberals will face backlash far sooner, especially if it hurts them in the well-to-do areas that abhor One Nation.

Could this decision damage Team Wilson in Melbourne’s leafy, teal-y east, where climate and integrity-focused independents are attempting to unseat Liberals?

As budding election analyst Leo Puglisi wrote in Crikey last month, there are a few such candidates in this election. The most relevant here are Sophie Torney, the two–time candidate challenging Wilson in Kew, and Shima Ibuki, a first-timer fighting former Victorian opposition leader John Pesutto in Hawthorn. Both seats are contained within Monique Ryan’s federal electorate of Kooyong, Victoria’s only remaining “teal” seat, though state seats have so far proved elusive for the independents.

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The more solid a Coalition victory looks, the less likely an independent upset seems. The anti-Labor, pro-Liberal mood isn’t on the independents’ side, as election guru Antony Green told Cut Through recently.

“Having already abandoned the values of our community on climate and…

In…

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