How Far Will Gas Prices Fall? Analyst Makes Thanksgiving Prediction

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Other factors cited by the analyst included an increased flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. However, he told Newsweek previously that gas “won’t return to prewar levels…

Motorists heading out for Thanksgiving could see some relief at the pump, with one prominent fuel analyst expecting costs to decline further by the holiday.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-price tracking platform GasBuddy, said in a Wednesday social media post that GasBuddy projects the national average gas price on Thanksgiving to be $3.59 to $3.69 per gallon and diesel prices to be $5.85 to $5.95 per gallon. He added that prices were “falling slightly faster than anticipated.” At the time of his post, prices for gas and diesel were $3.89 and $6.09, respectively, De Haan said.

Fuel prices will matter for the millions of Americans likely to travel during the upcoming holiday period, which is known as one of the busiest travel weeks in the U.S.

De Haan also said on Wednesday that GasBuddy noted 32 states with gas prices lower than $4 per gallon—a figure he said could rise to 35 if New Jersey, Massachusetts and New Hampshire are able to join the list on Thursday. The analyst previously indicated that number could reach 44 by Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical agency of the Department of Energy, released its short-term energy outlook on Tuesday. While the agency said it expects the average retail price of gasoline and diesel in the U.S. to fall in 2027, it said it had raised its forecast for the prices compared to its October outlook.

“In our forecast, the U.S. retail diesel price averages $5.03 per gallon (gal) next year, 12 percent higher than we forecast last month. Gasoline prices average $3.73/gal, 5 percent higher than last month,” the EIA said.

It added: “We now assume global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027.”

De Haan said earlier this week that “prices are falling and some people are already crediting (or blaming) the midterms. Here’s what’s actually going on: it’s fall, and prices tend to drop in the fall.”

He said in a series of posts…

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