The Truth Behind Iraq’s Oil Rebound And The Secret Red Sea Plan

Résumé détaillé

No country aside from Iran itself has felt the economic consequences of the U.S./Israel-Iran war more than Iraq. Over 90 percent of its annual budget historically comes from oil…

Simon Watkins is a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author. He was Head of Forex Institutional Sales and Trading for…

No country aside from Iran itself has felt the economic consequences of the U.S./Israel-Iran war more than Iraq. Over 90 percent of its annual budget historically comes from oil and around 95 percent of that historically had to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before it could be monetised. When Iran closed the strait on the first day of ‘Operation Epic Fury’, that vital oil transit route was shut to neighbouring Iraq, and its critical financial lifeline along with it. A temporary agreement was reached on 17 March between Tehran and Baghdad that was supposed to have secured safe passage through the strait for Iraqi ships, but it did not provide the quick fix many thought it might.

October saw Iraq’s nationwide crude production rebound to 4.22 million barrels per day (bpd), with 3.95 million bpd coming from the Federal Government of Iraq region in the south under Baghdad’s direct jurisdiction and 265,000 bpd coming from fields under the administration of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) operating out of Erbil in the north. In turn, crude oil exports surged 9.5% month-on-month, averaging between 3.35 million bpd and 3.5 million bpd. Both sets of figures -- production and exports -- are around the levels seen before the Strait of Hormuz was closed, but the positive picture this paints of an Iraqi oil sector rebound is misleading.

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