Democratic midterm wins may boost COP31 hopes, but Trump still controls US climate policy

Detailed summary

United States election results may embolden countries to push for stronger fossil fuel commitments, but observers expect limited immediate impact and urge progress on climate action and finance without waiting for Washington.

Democratic victories in the United States midterm elections could offer encouragement at COP31, but are unlikely to deliver an immediate breakthrough while President Donald Trump continues to direct US climate policy, according to Washington-based observers.

Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress, but their new majorities will take office in January, after COP31. Their victory therefore sends a political signal rather than changing who directs US climate diplomacy during the summit.

Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement for a second time and begun the process of withdrawing from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the treaty underpinning the COP talks. The country will have no official delegation at the negotiations for a second consecutive year.

The results do not change the administration’s position or resolve divisions over climate finance and the transition away from fossil fuels, suggested Clarence Edwards, Executive Director of independent, nonpartisan thinktank E3G US.

“Countries that have sought to avoid friction with the US may feel freer to take firmer positions on issues such as fossil fuel transition language, though we can only speculate on the extent,” Edwards told Eco-Business.

“The President still controls the executive branch, executes foreign policy, and the administration has set its policy toward the COP,” Edwards said.

In Edwards’s view, congressional and subnational representatives attending the summit could nevertheless demonstrate that US engagement on climate extends beyond the federal administration.

“That will no doubt lift the mood and reduce the sense that the US is entirely absent from the discussions,” he added.

Former US Secretary of State and climate envoy John Kerry offered a more optimistic interpretation of the election results while speaking at the Brazilian COP30 presidency’s presentation of its fossil fuel transition roadmap on Tuesday.

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