Cut off from Europe, Russia will have to rewire its Arctic gas trade

详细摘要

From 2027, Europe will no longer buy Russian LNG from Yamal. Getting the gas to Asia means longer trips, costlier ships and contractual workarounds.

An EU ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting Jan. 1, 2027 will force Moscow to find new buyers for exports from Yamal, its flagship Arctic project, and new ways to ship the gas.

Yamal’s LNG, gas that is cooled into a liquid so it can travel by ship, goes west through the Kara and Barents seas, around northern Norway and into European waters. Between January and October 2026, 81% of Yamal's recorded deliveries were destined for Europe as companies scrambled to get ahead of the upcoming ban, according to new analysis by the NGO Urgewald. It estimates Europe’s bill for that period at €8.7 billion, already above its estimate of €7.2 billion for all of 2025.

The ban will end the long-term contracts that still tie Yamal to Europe. Russia will have to redirect the gas, most likely to buyers in Asia, and reorganize the shipping network to reach them. Longer voyages mean higher costs and fewer trips per tanker each year because of the distance.

The LNG trade “is going to look completely different,” said Malte Humpert, senior fellow and founder of the think tank Arctic Institute. The ban gives Moscow “a bigger incentive” to find another route, he said. “It’s not easy. It’s not cheap. It’s very slow,” but Russia will “figure it out.”

An increase in black market LNG trade could be one way out. A classic shadow fleet has not been needed so far, since Yamal is not under sanctions, said Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald.

Nor is a shadow fleet well suited to the job. They typically use old, unregistered oil tankers that can easily disguise their movements. On the other hand, there are fewer LNG carriers globally and they follow a limited number of routes, making them easier to track, said Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank that follows EU sanctions policy.

One possible workaround is a “virtual swap.” Russia could sell more gas to countries such as Turkey or China, which could then sell more of their…

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