Iran War Breathes New Life Into Turkmenistan’s $10 Billion Pipeline Dream

Detailed summary

At an energy forum in Ashgabat in late October, Turkmenistan made an unexpected announcement. After years of delays and speculation that the project would be canceled, the forum…

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At an energy forum in Ashgabat in late October, Turkmenistan made an unexpected announcement. After years of delays and speculation that the project would be canceled, the forum audience was told the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline had just reached "the outskirts of Herat" and would be "commissioned by the end of 2026."

Depending on one's definition of "outskirts" for the northwestern Afghan city, that first claim appears to be true. Satellite images made on November 7 show the natural gas pipeline extending from Turkmenistan's southern border to a construction zone around 22 kilometers west of Herat's industrial district.

Satellite images show the progression of the TAPI pipeline to a site (bottom right) around 22 kilometers west of Herat's industrial district. The location of the construction site matches a Taliban government description of a planned offtake station from the TAPI pipeline.

TAPI is a planned 1,800-kilometer gas pipeline to connect Turkmenistan's vast Galkynysh gas fields with consumers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and eventually India.

The project was first envisioned in the 1990s, but local strife in Afghanistan and wider geopolitical tensions between the countries involved made the pipeline an increasingly tenuous prospect. India appeared to have turned its back on TAPI by 2024, and Pakistan's interest also waned around the same time. That cooling of interest, as well as the price tag -- projected at up to $10 billion -- and delays led some analysts to question Turkmenistan's unshakeable commitment to the project.

"The first thing is, it's a source of pride," John M. Roberts, a UK-based senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, told RFE/RL after news broke of the pipeline's approach toward Herat.

But Ashgabat's…

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