China's trade surplus soars past $1tn as AI boom powers exports

Résumé détaillé

China's trade surplus surged past $1tn in the first 10 months as a global race to build AI infrastructure buoyed sales of high-tech products and helpe ...

China's trade surplus surged past $1tn in the first 10 months as a global race to build AI infrastructure buoyed sales of high-tech products and helped offset weak domestic demand, a dynamic likely to sharpen tensions with major trading partners.

The data comes ahead of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year, putting broader economic ties and tariff policy squarely in focus.

The figures highlight Beijing's growing reliance on overseas demand to support an economy hobbled by subdued consumption and a protracted property slump. But while the global AI investment boom is expected to keep demand for Chinese technology products strong into 2027, analysts warn that deeper dependence on external markets could leave China more vulnerable to protectionist measures abroad while masking persistent weakness at home.

Exports rose sharply by 35.2% in October from the same month last year in US dollar terms, customs data showed on Tuesday, only a touch slower than the 36.3% surge in September and comfortably ahead of economists' forecast for an increase of 33.5%.

That helped lift China's trade surplus to $1.04tn in the first 10 months, topping $1tn for a second consecutive year and reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025.

The swelling surplus could fuel further tensions with the European Union, where leaders have called for more trade curbs with China after reaching an agreement with Beijing to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc over the next few years. Because the measures have yet to take effect, factories are expected to bring forward shipments, bolstering exports in the near term.

"The risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers will remain elevated in 2027, particularly as Chinese manufacturers continue expanding their presence in overseas markets," said Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China.

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