Canadian economists expect high inflation after October CPI report

Detailed summary

Canada’s inflation rate is expected to remain elevated, but economists are divided over whether rising energy costs will fuel broader price increases.

OTTAWA — Canada’s inflation rate is expected to remain elevated when new figures are released next week, but economists are divided over whether rising energy costs will fuel broader price increases.

Statistics Canada will release its October consumer price index report Monday.

The monthly report tracks changes in the cost of goods and services typically purchased by Canadian households, offering a snapshot of how prices are affecting consumers’ purchasing power.

As of Friday morning, a Reuters poll of economists predicted the annual rate of inflation rose to 3.2 per cent in October, up from 3.1 per cent in September, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

The big question among economists now isn’t just how high inflation has climbed but whether rising energy costs will push up prices across the economy, keeping inflation elevated for longer and potentially prompting further interest rate hikes.

LJ Valencia, an economist with Desjardins Economics, said persistently high energy costs risk driving up prices more broadly.

He said he expects October inflation to be “similar or perhaps slightly higher” than September.

Valencia said businesses have largely shielded consumers from rising energy costs so far, but their ability to continue absorbing those increases is limited.

“At some point, they’re going to start passing on these higher costs to consumers,” he said.

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