Dragonfly On-demand Webinar: Winter Outlook: Russia’s war in Ukraine and Europe

Résumé détaillé

In this on-demand intelligence briefing, Dragonfly analysts evaluate the escalating Houthi-Saudi Arabia conflict alongside the unresolved US–Iran confrontation, examining the growing likelihood that these separate tracks will converge into a unified regional crisis.

As winter ushers in a pivotal juncture for the Russia-Ukraine war, this on-demand briefing provides a strategic assessment of the shifting military, diplomatic, and geopolitical landscape.

With Moscow escalating its air campaigns to press maximalist demands, alongside transatlantic political headwinds and an expanding Russian hybrid warfare campaign across the continent, this session explores what organizations need to anticipate in the months ahead.

My name is Byron Cabrol. I’m the head of our Africa team here at Dragonfly and it’s my pleasure to be chairing this session today. To introduce our two panelists, we have David Dalton, who leads our Europe and Eurasia desk, as well as Piotr Majda, who is an intelligence analyst on the same team. Both of our speakers today will focus on the following issues:

We have about 45 minutes for this session today. As usual, we will endeavor to allow time at the end of the session to answer any of the questions you may have. I therefore invite participants to start submitting your questions as soon as you’d like, and we will try to answer as many of these as possible. You can send us your questions with the Q&A button at the bottom of the screen.

So with that being said, let’s get started. David, could you please begin by giving us your analysis of the current state of the war in Ukraine and what you assess will be the major developments over the next few months?

The current situation is that the ground war has reached an especially brutal stalemate. As a consequence, over the course of the year, the air war has widened geographically and in terms of targets. This leaves Ukraine in an increasingly vulnerable position to winter attacks from Russia amid uncertainty of US support, not just because of changing Trump policy, but because of the outcome of the midterm elections.

The ground war this year has been increasingly dominated by drones and glide bombs, with new tactics from both sides.

On the air war, which is probably the most…

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