Grattan on Friday: Can Albanese regain political altitude for Labor – and himself?

Résumé détaillé

A government in trouble is like an aircraft in a dangerous plunge. Will Albanese be able to pull it back on course in time?

A government in trouble is like an aircraft in a dangerous plunge. It can be pulled out of the dive if its mechanical problems are fixable and the piloting sufficiently skilful. If those conditions are not met, however, the plane will crash land, with who knows what degree of damage.

We saw something similar before the 2025 election, and then the captain and crew didn’t just stabilise the plane – they flew it to an unexpected height. But every flight is a new journey.

Albanese would use a different word picture. He recently told his worried caucus, “we’ll be kicking with the wind in the fourth quarter”.

It’s his old line and it proved true last time. But the wind direction in 2028 is unpredictable.

What is clear is the shine has well and truly disappeared from Albanese’s leadership.

Albanese was never a charismatic leader, neither a great orator nor an innovative policy thinker. He says people always underestimated him. Perhaps it was more a case of underestimating how far he could rise. He’s a superior tactician, honed in the fires of Labor’s left, with long experience in politics and in government. That gave him a competent skill set in his bid for the prime ministership. Fortuitous circumstances helped with the rest.

In both 2022 and 2025 he benefitted less from having a tailwind than from his opponents facing strong headwinds. Voters wanted to dispatch Scott Morrison. Then they couldn’t stomach Peter Dutton.

Albanese is in his present dire trouble because of multiple factors, some outside his control, others his own fault.

Voters’ black mood reflects in large part the serious financial straits many families are in with the cost-of-living pressures and the real wages slump. Annual real wages are not forecast to begin growing again until towards the end of 2027.

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