Jensen Huang exit odds are low on prediction markets after Nvidia probe

Detailed summary

Prediction markets traders price relatively low odds that the Nvidia CEO will depart in the near term.

Nvidia's board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang, citing recent reports that he's been targeted by a "foreign intelligence effort," but traders on prediction markets think it's unlikely he'll be ousted as chief.

On Sunday, Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a woman who U.S. intelligence officials — according to The New York Times – say is a spy for China's Ministry of State Security.

On Kalshi, speculators say there's just a 17% chance Huang is gone by 2027. Those odds rise to 30% by 2028, and 35% by 2029. However, they think there is a 75% probability that Huang will depart by 2031.

Contracts on Huang's departure on Kalshi are resolved using information from Bloomberg.

On Polymarket, speculators place just one-in-four odds that Huang resigns or is forced out by the end of March 2027. Contracts are resolved on the platform using official statements from the company or Huang himself.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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