“Being Prudent”: TSMC Stock Has Surged 41% in a Year. Is It Too Late to Buy?

详细摘要

Key TakeawaysTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has gained 41% over the past year, closing at $398. 73 on November 13, but remains 18% below its 52-week high.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has gained 41% over the past year as AI infrastructure spending continues to drive demand for advanced chips.

However, shares closed at $398.73 on November 13, approximately 18% below their October high of $487.47.

On November 5, TSMC shares fell nearly 11% amid broader semiconductor selling, as investors weighed concerns about AI investment, rising memory prices, and changing expansion plans across the chip industry.

Micron Technology (MU) has benefited from tight memory supplies, but higher component prices are also putting pressure on manufacturers serving price-sensitive markets.

During TSMC's October 15 earnings call, CEO C.C. Wei acknowledged these challenges, saying the company was "being prudent in our business planning going into 2027."

According to its third-quarter earnings release, revenue increased 41.2% year over year in U.S. dollars to $46.72 billion, while net income climbed 68.7%. Its 2-nanometer technology accounted for 8% of wafer revenue.

The company's October revenue report showed sales rising 59.7% year over year to NT$586.89 billion, while management raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to approximately 44%, up from nearly 30% in January.

According to TIKR estimates, normalized EPS could increase approximately 120% from $10.65 in 2025 to $23.39 in 2027.

Analysts also raised their 2027 EPS estimates by approximately 16% since late June, suggesting improving expectations for future profitability.

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