A wave of new LNG supply will change who wins in gas

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For most of this year, the conversation about liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been about scarcity: the Strait of Hormuz, force majeure, rerouted cargoes, buyers in South Asia…

For most of this year, the conversation about liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been about scarcity: the Strait of Hormuz, force majeure, rerouted cargoes, buyers in South Asia priced out of the market. That disruption is real, and it has not gone away. But it is the wrong lens for the decade ahead.

Look past this year's headlines and the market is heading somewhere else. New liquefaction capacity on the US Gulf Coast and Qatar's North Field expansion will come on stream through the second half of this decade, and the world is widely seen as well supplied. The question for every producer, buyer, trader and terminal owner is not whether there will be gas. It is what it will take to compete when there is.

The stage before it created enormous value. Value chains unbundled, contract destination restrictions loosened and flexible portfolios were built, and a cargo loaded at Ras Laffan or in…

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