Is South Africa ready for El Niño? Water and food security concerns mount

Detailed summary

Despite relatively healthy dam levels, failing municipal infrastructure, leaking pipes, and rising food prices could leave South Africa vulnerable as a…

South Africa is better placed to withstand a possible El Niño-induced drought than it was before the 2015/16 crisis, with dam levels currently relatively high.

But water experts have warned that the country’s ageing infrastructure, municipal delivery failures and vulnerability to food price increases leave little room for complacency.

The warning came during a webinar on Wednesday hosted by WaterCAN, titled Is South Africa ready for El Niño?, which considered what a prolonged dry spell could mean for water supplies and food prices and what the government should be doing to prepare.

Anja du Plessis, an associate professor and water management expert at Unisa, described El Niño as “a stress test that we can see coming”.

“Our dams are in a better shape than 2015/2016 and that gives us a little bit of time, but time only helps if we spend it on fixing leaks, building buffers and making decisions early.”

But having water in dams did not necessarily mean that it would reach households.

Du Plessis identified three pressures that could emerge during the El Niño: reduced inflows into dams, increased evaporation as temperatures rise and higher demand for water.

The effect of heat on consumption could be felt within days, she said, while changes in dam levels would take longer to become apparent. The immediate pressure would therefore be on treatment plants, pumping systems and municipal distribution networks to cope with increased demand.

“The Vaal system is in good shape,” she said, but warned that the greater vulnerability lay in whether the infrastructure responsible for treating and distributing water could keep up.

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