Why Dhaka doesn’t want Hasina back

Detailed summary

The irony is that Dhaka and Delhi may now share an interest: neither really seems to want Hasina back in Bangladesh, and Dhaka’s apparent refusal to give her a passport or travel…

Seen from Sheikh Hasina’s perspective, deciding to try and return to Bangladesh is clever politics.

First, it makes her relevant again; it makes her the centre of the story. Second, it looks brave and self-sacrificing, with her facing imprisonment and possibly even death. Third, it allows her supporters to contrast her “bravery” with that of the current prime minister, Tarique Rahman, who did not attempt to return to Bangladesh and face detention while Awami League was in power.

Fourth, it makes her appear loyal and empathetic towards her Awami League colleagues and supporters, since she suggests she is returning in part because of the rights violations and suffering they now face. Fifth, it will let her and Awami League draw far more critical attention to the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) and the in absentia trial in which she was convicted.

Sixth, and perhaps most importantly, it puts the BNP government in a very difficult position. Officially, the government wants her back to face her sentence. In reality, her return could be the last thing it wants, because it would then have to decide whether to let her execution go ahead or find a way to avoid it, through her appeal or presidential clemency.

There would be huge public demand for her execution. And people would point out that between 2013 and 2016, the Awami League government executed five Jamaat-e-Islami leaders and one BNP leader, all convicted by the same tribunal that has now convicted her.

But the government also knows that Awami League still has considerable support in the country. Executing her could prove explosive, with consequences that are hard to predict and could badly damage both the country and the ruling BNP. Her execution, or even just her being in jail, would almost certainly lead to resurgent Awami League protests resulting in repression and human rights violations as the government tries to contain them.

Then there is the question of who she is. Whatever Hasina’s misdeeds and crimes, can a…

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Opening of the article, excerpted from The Daily Star. To read the rest, open the article on the publisher's site.