ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026

详细摘要

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purchasing power of the single currency.

The European Central Bank (ECB) headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements with one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries). The tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 (based on a coverage of 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (based on a coverage of 31.8%), and declines to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (based on a still relatively low coverage of 23.3%).

Compared with the September 2026 data release, the headline wage tracker was revised upwards slightly for the second half of 2026 and for the first half of 2027, by around 0.1 percentage points on average.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments stands at 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027, down from 2.7% for the first half of 2027 and for 2026 as a whole. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments moderates to 2.5% for the third quarter of 2027 from 2.9% for the first half of 2027 and stands at 2.6% on average for 2026, continuing to indicate a limited scope for one-off payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements. Excluding one-offs, the ECB wage tracker averages 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, indicating a slightly higher permanent negotiated wage growth than registered for the full year of 2026.

The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as it smooths one-off payments over time. By contrast, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics in negotiated wages.

The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker has been extended up to the end of September 2027. As new agreements are signed and coverage of contracts reaching 2027 gradually increases, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be further extended to the full year of 2027 in the December 2026 data release.

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