Which business moats will still matter in the age of AI?

Résumé détaillé

AI agents could keep looking.

For many investors, a company’s economic moat is one of the most important things to understand. A strong moat can protect market share, support pricing power and help a business earn attractive returns for years, even as competitors try to take those profits away.

The best moats usually come from something genuinely hard to replicate: a unique product, valuable intellectual property, scarce assets, scale or some other lasting competitive advantage.

Some businesses may be protected, at least in part, by the fact that their customers are human.

People are busy. We forget things. We don’t always read the fine print. We put off switching banks or insurance companies because it sounds like a hassle. We keep paying for subscriptions we barely use. And when shopping for something becomes too complicated, we often settle for good enough.

I think of these as behavioral moats. And the rise of personal AI agents could put some of them at risk.

We got an early look at that concern in September, when Meta’s Muse AI agent caught investors’ attention. Shares of companies that could be vulnerable to declining consumer inertia sold off. Charles Schwab fell more than 6%, insurer Allstate dropped 5.5%, Planet Fitness fell as much as 11%, and travel companies including Expedia and Booking Holdings also came under pressure. (Bloomberg)

The reaction may prove overdone. Agentic AI is still young, and there are major questions around security, trust and how much authority consumers will actually hand over to software.

Would a company’s advantage still exist if every customer had a tireless personal assistant constantly looking for a better deal?

Consumers routinely leave money in accounts paying less interest than they could earn elsewhere. That isn’t necessarily because they believe their bank offers the best deal. Moving accounts can mean comparing alternatives, filling out forms, changing direct deposits and reconnecting automatic payments.

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