Myanmar knocks on ASEAN's door, but…

Detailed summary

Myanmar’s commitment to returning to ASEAN remains uncertain as President Min Aung Hlaing keeps regional leaders guessing, having stalled on the Five-Point Consensus for the past five years.

Is Myanmar really serious about returning to the ASEAN family? The answer is “maybe or maybe not.” President Min Aung Hlaing wants ASEAN leaders to guess what his next moves will be. After all, he has successfully dragged his feet in implementing the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) for the past five years.

Following the election early this year, he seems to be getting serious, judging from his diplomatic moves over the past three months. He has been shuttling among capitals in ASEAN, India, Russia, Belarus, and China. Like a magician, he can produce unexpected moves—now you see them, now you do not.

Min Aung Hlaing's latest diplomatic moves suggest that his government begin to recognize the importance of improving ties with ASEAN and fulfilling the 5PC. ASEAN has been disappointed with Myanmar’s response to it 5PC. Singapore, the upcoming chair, has maintained that meaningful progress has yet to be made.

The most frequently asked question now is whether ASEAN should judge Myanmar solely on its failures or instead recognize the incremental steps that could generate further progress.

Positive signs from Naypyidaw have been evident. Granting permission for Aung San Suu Kyi to communicate with her son and to meet representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) were confidence-building gestures.

The recent visit by Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, as the ASEAN special envoy, was considered a positive development. She visited Taunggyi in Shan State, where she could assess humanitarian conditions and explore ways to expand assistance.

Lazaro is expected to build on this opening. Her planned further consultations with Myanmar's ethnic armed organizations, following an earlier meeting in Pattaya in July, are particularly important. A second meeting is expected to take place soon at an undisclosed location inside Thailand. This much-needed political dialogue will bring more stakeholders into the peace process.

Thailand has consistently argued that…

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Opening of the article, excerpted from Thai PBS World. To read the rest, open the article on the publisher's site.