How Hamas Hopes to Win Big From Trump and Netanyahu’s Election Woes

Résumé détaillé

Having survived three years of the existential war it began, Hamas shows little sign of total defeat. Now it has new options.

With U.S. President Donald Trump's party staggering from a major midterm election setback and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrangling to retain power following a heated vote, the Palestinian militant movement that sparked the Middle East crisis looming large over both men's careers could be poised to gain momentum.

Hamas, though battered and besieged, has survived three years of full-scale war in which Netanyahu placed eliminating the group once and for all at the foremost of his goals.

Now, having held on long enough to witness the first electoral challenge to the Israeli premier and the second turning of political tides in Washington since the start of the conflict, the Islamist movement finds itself with a new array of options.

"Hamas may calculate that divisions in Washington and political uncertainty in Israel provide additional room to maneuver over disarmament, reconstruction and its future role in Palestinian governance," Magnus Ranstorp, a leading counterterrorism expert serving as strategic adviser at the Swedish Defense University's Center for Societal Security, told Newsweek.

Ranstorp speaks from decades of firsthand experience studying the group. He's met face-to-face with much of Hamas' historic, now-slain leadership, from founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, killed by Israel in 2004, to Ismail Haniyeh, who led during the bloody October 2023 attack before his brazen assassination in the heart of Iran's capital the following year.

In the face of the latest developments, Ranstorp predicts, "this could encourage Hamas to pursue a strategy of political accommodation without surrendering its remaining military infrastructure, while deepening contacts with other Palestinian factions and preserving its influence within Gaza's institutions."

Hamas' formal organizational structure has never fully recovered from the shock of Haniyeh's surprise 2024 killing.

He held the top position for just over two months before being hunted down by an Israel Defense Forces (IDF)…

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