Pact on South China Sea code of conduct unlikely, as ASEAN leaders gather

详细摘要

Finishing negotiations for disputed South China Sea agreement will be a 'tall order', analysts say.

A long-awaited pact between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China for a “code of conduct” in the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the regional bloc’s annual gathering of leaders in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

The agreement would aim to manage tensions and prevent conflict at sea. But talks have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years.

That deadline fell on 2026 – the year the Philippines took its turn as chair of ASEAN. Under its leadership, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said negotiators have met at least once a month.

But they have fallen short of arriving at a consensus ahead of the summit.

“I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished,” DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday, adding that there are some ‘salient’ points that still need to be ironed out.

She has previously said that geographical scope is one of the contentious issues. Beijing insists it has jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling invalidating that claim.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia also have overlapping territorial claims.

The Philippines would also like the accord to respect the rights of countries outside the region, according to DFA spokesman Dominic Xavier Imperial. Half of the world’s merchant ships pass through the South China Sea.

“You can’t win it because if you get a good document, you’ll be accused of railroading or it would come across as self-serving. But if it’s a bad document, the Marcos Jr administration will be seen as a weak government,” Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said.

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