The next Congress could be more productive than you expect. Here’s what that means for your company

Résumé détaillé

Companies shouldn't bet on gridlock in 2027.

When I was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s speechwriter, there were very few nail-biter votes. Hanging around the cloakroom, 99 percent of the time we could predict the exact outcome of a vote before the roll call began.

That’s how we’re all trained to think about Washington now. We’ve been through years of gridlock, and our pattern recognition-obsessed brains assume there will be more. The fundamentals of a divided federal government suggest the same: Democrats control both chambers, President Trump holds the veto pen, overcoming a filibuster still requires 60 votes, and overturning a veto requires 67.

But the 2026 election scrambled the incentives that have kept Washington gridlocked for so long.

To understand this shift, start with the next map. In 2028, 18 Republican senators are up for re-election, and seven of them represent states that either elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2026 or came within three points of doing so.

Sen. Ashley Moody held her Florida seat by under three points, and she faces voters again in two years. Sen. John Kennedy just watched Louisiana nearly elect its first Democratic senator since 2008. Sens. Jerry Moran, Tim Scott and Ted Budd represent states where Democrats won Senate races this year. So will whoever runs for Sen. Chuck Grassley’s seat in Iowa.

The years 2016 to 2026 will forever be remembered as the MAGA decade. During this period, the most existential fear keeping Republicans up at night was a primary challenge to their right with Trump support. This spring, Trump helped push out Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas. They were the latest in a long string of Republican casualties when their loyalty to the president was questioned.

Look at what happened to the nominees who replaced Cassidy and Cornyn. Ken Paxton lost Texas by 12 points. Julia Letlow, Trump’s pick in Louisiana, held the seat by less than two.

For the last decade, Republican senators had more reason to fear losing a primary than losing a general…

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