Yes Or No? With The Right Policy, Wind & Solar Will Save Us

Detailed summary

With the Iran War, wind & solar are widely promoted, with battery storage, to power grid systems. Evidence from nations highly dependent on these sources contradict this.

What lessons must be learned from the energy crisis brought by the Iran War? Nobel economist Paul Romer famously said, after all: "A crisis is a terrible thing to waste." Renewable energy advocates very much agree. This should be the curtain call for hydrocarbon dependence.

On November 6, the International Energy Agency added its official voice to the chorus. In its flagship forecast Renewables 2026, we learn that "With well-designed policies, [wind and solar] can offer countries a way to diversify their energy mix, reduce exposure to imported fuels and high prices, lower overall electricity supply costs, and cut emissions."

The statement is offered both as fact and promise. But it bundles claims of very different strength. Further, it implies that serious limitations apply to policy choices, not the sources themselves.

Spain, Germany, Denmark, the UK, and China have all pushed hard to realize success. If the IEA's claim is justified, how do they bear it out.

This is the strongest claim. The IEA estimates that solar and wind have reduced EU fossil fuel imports considerably. In the case of Spain, for example, its huge renewable buildout has cut gas imports for power generation by tens of $billion, lowering its exposure to the uncertainties caused by the Iran War.

True and important as this is, it doesn't reduce the security issue as much as might seem. This is because, like the rest of the EU where fossil fuel use has fallen, gas dependence has been traded for technology and mineral dependence.

While Spain has established a robust industry for manufacturing wind turbines, the rare earth elements needed for this technology (mainly neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, and terbium) overwhelmingly come from one country, China. This is no less true for Denmark and Germany, also major manufacturers of wind technology. Beijing, meantime, despite reliance on export revenue from REEs, has hardly been above using them as weapons of geopolitical pressure.

Importers, try as they…

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