Schrödinger's Escalation: War Trump, Peace Trump

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Schrödinger's Escalation: War Trump, Peace Trump Authored by former CIA officer Larry JohnsonF. Scott Fitzgerald said the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold…

F. Scott Fitzgerald said the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still function. By that standard, Donald Trump spent Sunday and Monday proving he is a genius.

In the space of 48 hours, the President told us the war with Iran is winding down and that the military is “locked and loaded.” Strikes are “highly unlikely,” and he has picked out 38 bridges to blow up. A deal is close, and the blockade should stay. I have spent much of my career reading intelligence reports written to please several masters at once. I have never seen anyone do it this well in public, with no notes.

Peace Trump gave an interview to 60 Minutes on Sunday. He said he was “not looking” to escalate the war: “I don’t think there’s any reason to.” He told CNN that new strikes were “highly unlikely” to be necessary. He conceded that voters “didn’t like the war” and were angry about gas prices. Asked about JD Vance’s post blaming the war for the midterm rout, he said, “I don’t disagree with it.”

On Monday, after a meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, Peace Trump was even sunnier. “We are seeing positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict,” he wrote. Then he walked into the White House briefing room and announced that the Iranians were “talking very politely,” that there was a “good chance” of a deal, and that the war was “ending quickly.”

War Trump appears in the same interviews, sometimes in the same paragraph. In that same CNN call, he explained that a deal “depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement.” If not, US forces have identified 38 Iranian bridges “that we can knock down in literally one hour.” On Truth Social, he announced that Task Force Iron Gate, the operation to choke off Iranian weapons shipments, “is in full force and effect,” right alongside the naval blockade.

In Washington, War Trump declared, “we are locked and loaded and ready to go.” He explained that strikes were “quite unlikely” only because…

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