Map Shows States Where El Niño Could Have Biggest Impact This Winter

Detailed summary

A forecast points to which parts of the United States could see the most-notable winter impacts from a strengthening and potentially historic El Niño. The outlook, issued by…

A forecast points to which parts of the United States could see the most-notable winter impacts from a strengthening and potentially historic El Niño.

The outlook, issued by private weather company AccuWeather, suggests parts of the South and West face heightened risk of flooding. The phenomenon could also lead to drier conditions across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.

El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer Pacific waters that can affect temperatures and rainfall around the world. In the U.S., its typical effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.

Forecasters have said the current episode has already smashed benchmarks, and that it could help make 2027 the hottest on record.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said Thursday a "strong-to-very strong" event is likely through January-March 2027, and that there is roughly a 60 percent chance for a "historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950” for the October-December and November-January periods.

"We can expect a very active subtropical jet stream sending storms [to] the West Coast," AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok told Newsweek after the CPC released its newest update. The Southern U.S. can expect cool and fairly wet conditions, he said.

"The interior Northwest, upper Midwest, Great Lakes and much of the Northeast will have warmer-than-average temperatures, less arctic intrusions [and] less-than-average snowfall," the meteorologist added.

In an email sent to Newsweek on Wednesday, AccuWeather said that, while the event could match or surpass previous strong events, including those recorded in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, similar strength doesn’t necessarily translate to similar impacts.

"Past strong El Niño winters offer clues, but this winter will have its own characteristics.

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