Prediction: The Next Phase of Coinbase Could Be Its Most Important Yet

Detailed summary

Coinbase sits at its 52-week low after a brutal slide, yet prediction markets, derivatives, and stablecoins are quietly growing underneath the weak spot trading. Can the new businesses carry the stock, or does the bear case win?

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) spent 2026 rebuilding itself as an "Everything Exchange," and the market has yet to reward it. Its shares last closed at $136.82. The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $188.65 over the next 12 months, which means 37.88% upside.

The model rates the stock a buy with 70% confidence, a fairly high reading. The core thesis is that prediction markets, derivatives, and stablecoins can carry results while spot crypto trading stays soft.

Coinbase is down 16.94% over the past week, 28.18% over the past month, and 41.01% year to date. It traded at $133.39 midday Friday, right at its 52-week low of $133.50 and far below its $324.80 high. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) lost 8.76% over the past month, and this week Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) told investors to steer clear of the stock.

Third-quarter revenue of $1.22B fell 35% YoY, narrowly missing expectations of $1.221B. GAAP EPS of $2.51 beat expectations of $0.07, but $715M of crypto investment gains drove most of it. Q4 transaction revenue of about $165M through October 25 points to a slow start for the quarter.

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Prediction markets passed $200M in annualized revenue, growing at 82% per quarter. Together, predictions and derivatives now account for about 25% of transaction revenue. Coinbase also gained crypto trading share for a fourth straight quarter, reaching 10.7%, and a record $22B in average USDC (CRYPTO:USDC) balances raised stablecoin revenue to $307M.

On the earnings call, Alesia Haas said "this is all incremental". Further catalysts include the Deribit integration, the Coinbase Pro relaunch, and $2B left on the buyback authorization. The bull case reaches $290.72.

Spot volume fell 6% QoQ, and operating income dropped 87.17% YoY to $61.7M.

As a counterpoint, Adjusted EBITDA rose 60% QoQ to…

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