Still Digesting

Detailed summary

If there is a slowdown, it will be because of the industry itself, or because credit markets push back too much, or, in the short term, if the Anthropic IPO doesn’t go according to plan. So far none of those things seems to be occurring. If

Last weekend we went with A Lot To Digest. Not only are markets trying to figure out the economic and market outlook post midterm elections, but we also had software outages, a nationwide ground stop, and the CEO of one of the most important companies in the world resign.

Our week was meant to start at 5 a.m. on CNBC on Monday to discuss a variety of macro and geopolitical issues. But, with news breaking that the CEO confirmed a relationship (with someone alleged to be a Chinese spy), we got pushed to later in the show. Though, of course, the first question in our segment was still about Jensen. On Thursday we went on Bloomberg TV knowing full well that we would be talking about the developing situation around Jensen. I think we handled the subject well under the circumstances. Academy continues to be at the forefront of examining the National Security issues surrounding the compute build-out.

We have highlighted the threat (to the economy and market valuations) of Cheap Chinese Compute and China’s willingness to “distill” their models on existing models to reduce time and cost in training. We are comparing the risk to other periods where China grew to dominate industries (from basic manufacturing, to large swaths of global telecom, to the processing and refining of rare earths and critical minerals, and more recently, EV production). In each case China follows a pattern:

The allegations that the woman in question was a spy may or may not turn out to be true. While that distinction will be important for those directly involved, it is a good wake-up call to focus on China’s “all-in” efforts to grow their compute capability.

At Academy, where ~50% of the company served, Veterans Day is always an important day. And after the previous section, which was kind of “heavy,” I wanted to share a few things from this Veterans Day for Academy.

While that was very cool, I really wanted to highlight two other teammates.

Probably not the first time Phil McConkey has lit up Times…

Rachel…

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