Election 2026: Blue tide recedes as National party vote dropped in every seat – especially in Auckland

Detailed summary

National’s party vote fell in every electorate seat in the election’s preliminary results, compared with 2023. It’s not surprising that it fell in some seats, given National’s…

National’s party vote fell in every electorate seat in the election’s preliminary results, compared with 2023.

It’s not surprising that it fell in some seats, given National’s party vote dropped by about 9 percentage points in the preliminary results compared with 2023.

But to fall in every single electorate across the country is a warning for the party, Victoria University associate professor in politics Dr Lara Greaves says.

“That’s a lot of pain for them,” she told the Herald, especially when combined with the loss of senior ministers Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee.

“And then also to lose [list candidate and former MP] Nancy Lu, who reached out to important communities. The Chinese community is a huge group, especially among newer migrants that National appeals to.

“They’re going to really need to work to make sure they can still appeal to those groups, including in Auckland.”

National’s party vote suffered more in Auckland than in the rest of the country, with the biggest drops coming in Takanini (15.4 percentage points), Papakura (13.9 points) and East Coast Bays (13.3 points).

These were also the electorates where the party’s support was higher than the national average.

National had its lowest party vote support in the South Auckland seats of Māngere (11.4%), Ōtāhuhu (15.4%) and Manurewa (16.9%).

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